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women eventually faster than men?



 
 
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  #1  
Old September 30th 04, 02:38 AM
freddy
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Default women eventually faster than men?

September 30, 2004

Women must wait another 150 years to consign men to the slow
lane
By Mark Henderson, Science Correspondent







ATHENS might have produced a memorable Olympics, but its place
in history will be nothing compared to the games of 2156. Scientists predict
that this is the year in which women will overtake men as the fastest
sprinters in the world.

The women's 100 metres champion in 150 years will breast the
tape in a time of just 8.079 seconds, fractionally quicker than the winning
men's mark of 8.098 seconds, British researchers have calculated.

A mathematical analysis of the winning times at Olympic finals
over the past 100 years has shown that women's performance is improving
significantly faster than that of men.

Should this trend continue - and the scientists see no
compelling reason why it should not - the progress graphs will cross during
the 66th Olympiad in 2156, making the fastest person in the world female for
the first time.

The margin of error is such that the overtaking could happen as
soon as 2064 or as late as 2788. There is also a possibility that men will
never lose their lead.

Many scientists believe that the performance of both sexes will
eventually plateau - though there is no evidence that either has yet - and
that men have biomechanical and hormonal advantages that are likely to keep
them ahead.

The calculations, which are published today in the journal
Nature, also assume that all past and future athletes are drug free - a
prospect that many observers may consider unlikely.

Andy Tatem of Oxford University, who led the research, said the
idea that men will always sprint faster than women is uncertain and that the
evidence suggests that they will not.

"The 2004 Olympic women's 100m sprint champion, Yuliya
Nesterenko, is assured of fame and fortune," he said.

"But we show here that - if current trends continue - it is the
winner of the event in the 2156 Olympics whose name will be etched in
sporting history forever, because this may be the first occasion on which
the race is won in a faster time than the men's event.

"We are not saying categorically that women will overtake men,
but we think there is a chance and we have put this up for discussion. The
trends show (that women) seem to be closing the gap, so maybe one day they
could become the dominant force."

At the first women's 100m Olympic final, staged in the Amsterdam
Games of 1928, the winning time was 12.2 seconds compared to 10.8 seconds
for the men - a margin of 1.4 seconds. By 1952, the interval had fallen to
1.1 seconds and in four of the five Olympics between 1988 and 2000 the
difference was less than a second.

The gap widenend in Athens, with Nesterenko taking gold in a
time of 10.93 - 1.08 seconds slower than Justin Gatlin's winning time of
9.85.

Dr Tatem, however, pointed out that this may reflect the absence
of many leading female athletes, such as Kelli White and Marion Jones,
because of drug-taking allegations.

"This year's women's Olympic final was a little unusual in that
some of the world's fastest runners were not present, so the time wasn't
perhaps as impressive as it could have been," he said.

There is no indication, however, that either sex is approaching
a plateau of achievement, or that the relative improvement in women's
performance has been caused purely by drug use.

He also pointed out that the vast majority of the world's female
population has not yet had the opportunity to compete. "People often argue
that athletes have reached their limits but, in this study at least, that
doesn't seem to be the case," Dr Tatem said.

"We have no idea how low times for the 100 metres could go. We
have to assume that athletes in the future will be drug-free but who is to
say what the rules will be in 2156?

"It was once considered ungentlemanly to even train for athletic
events so who knows what will happen."

The model suggests that at the Beijing Olympics of 2008, the men
's gold medallist will finish in 9.73 seconds and the women's champion in
10.57.

Many sports scientists, however, think that anatomical factors
mean that the present trends will taper off, and that the fastest women will
never sprint quicker than the fastest men.

Men's greater average body size, testosterone production and
muscle mass all provide significant advantages.






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  #2  
Old September 30th 04, 03:57 AM
Donovan Rebbechi
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On 2004-09-30, freddy wrote:
September 30, 2004

Women must wait another 150 years to consign men to the slow lane
By Mark Henderson, Science Correspondent







ATHENS might have produced a memorable Olympics, but its place
in history will be nothing compared to the games of 2156. Scientists predict
that this is the year in which women will overtake men as the fastest
sprinters in the world.


Different scientists think different things.

However, scientists have been making such predictions for years, so we
already have a pretty good idea of who appears to be right and who appears
to be wrong.

The main reason that women are rapidly closing the gap is simply greater
participation. There simply weren't many hardcore female track athletes
until recently. The first womens olympic marathon was staged in 1984.

The gap will continue to close because there still aren't as many diehard
female athletes as there are males. I compete in a local running club, and
the male competitive field has more depth (in the sense that there are more
men who run close to the mens record pace than there are women)

Cheers,
--
Donovan Rebbechi
http://pegasus.rutgers.edu/~elflord/
  #3  
Old September 30th 04, 02:04 PM
Peter Allen
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"freddy" wrote in message ...
September 30, 2004

Women must wait another 150 years to consign men to the slow
lane
By Mark Henderson, Science Correspondent







ATHENS might have produced a memorable Olympics, but its place
in history will be nothing compared to the games of 2156. Scientists predict
that this is the year in which women will overtake men as the fastest
sprinters in the world.

snip
Same logic as used in that piece would suggest that the No1 tennis
player in the world will be a woman in about 30 years; that probably
won't happen either.

The reason why women's sport in general is trending upwards faster
than men's sport is that women have only been competing seriously for
about 50 years, whereas for men it's more like 100 (or much longer in
some sports). There aren't really any men's sports these days where
someone comes along and takes the game to a new level; there are some
women's sports where that has happened recently.

Peter
  #4  
Old September 30th 04, 02:41 PM
Jeff Finlayson
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freddy wrote:

September 30, 2004
Women must wait another 150 years to consign men to the slow lane
By Mark Henderson, Science Correspondent


ATHENS might have produced a memorable Olympics, but its place
in history will be nothing compared to the games of 2156. Scientists predict
that this is the year in which women will overtake men as the fastest
sprinters in the world.

The women's 100 metres champion in 150 years will breast the
tape in a time of just 8.079 seconds, fractionally quicker than the winning
men's mark of 8.098 seconds, British researchers have calculated.

A mathematical analysis of the winning times at Olympic finals
over the past 100 years has shown that women's performance is improving
significantly faster than that of men.

Should this trend continue - and the scientists see no
compelling reason why it should not - the progress graphs will cross during
the 66th Olympiad in 2156, making the fastest person in the world female for
the first time.


This Assumes the a linear progression..

The margin of error is such that the overtaking could happen as
soon as 2064 or as late as 2788. There is also a possibility that men will
never lose their lead.


At the first women's 100m Olympic final, staged in the Amsterdam
Games of 1928, the winning time was 12.2 seconds compared to 10.8 seconds
for the men - a margin of 1.4 seconds. By 1952, the interval had fallen to
1.1 seconds and in four of the five Olympics between 1988 and 2000 the
difference was less than a second.

The gap widenend in Athens, with Nesterenko taking gold in a
time of 10.93 - 1.08 seconds slower than Justin Gatlin's winning time of
9.85.


Using the ratio of the times would be a more fair comparison. The
difference could decrease with the ratio staying the same.

Many sports scientists, however, think that anatomical factors
mean that the present trends will taper off, and that the fastest women will
never sprint quicker than the fastest men.

  #5  
Old September 30th 04, 05:47 PM
TheTortoise
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freddy wrote:
The women's 100 metres champion in 150 years will breast

the
tape

snip

heh, heh. . .he said "breast". . .heh, heh
I'm guessing that choice of words is not just a coin-kee-dink. . .

  #6  
Old September 30th 04, 10:47 PM
Lordy
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"freddy" wrote in
:

Should this trend continue -


And here comes the money sentence .. drum roll ..

and the scientists see no
compelling reason why it should not -


much applause ...

the progress graphs will cross
during the 66th Olympiad in 2156, making the fastest person in the
world female for the first time.





--
Lordy
  #7  
Old October 1st 04, 02:24 PM
shumway
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freddy wrote:

September 30, 2004

Women must wait another 150 years to consign men to the slow
lane
By Mark Henderson, Science Correspondent







ATHENS might have produced a memorable Olympics, but its place
in history will be nothing compared to the games of 2156. Scientists
predict that this is the year in which women will overtake men as the
fastest sprinters in the world.

The women's 100 metres champion in 150 years will breast the
tape in a time of just 8.079 seconds, fractionally quicker than the
winning men's mark of 8.098 seconds, British researchers have calculated.

A mathematical analysis of the winning times at Olympic finals
over the past 100 years has shown that women's performance is improving
significantly faster than that of men.

Should this trend continue - and the scientists see no
compelling reason why it should not - the progress graphs will cross
during the 66th Olympiad in 2156, making the fastest person in the world
female for the first time.


Somehow this study reminds me of one conducted after shortly after Elvis's
death that concluded that due to the increase in Elvis impersonators, in X
number of years 1 out of every n males will be working as an Elvis
impersanator. I do not remember what X and n are, but they are not really
important).
  #8  
Old October 2nd 04, 05:50 AM
zxcv
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Default

"freddy" wrote in message ...
September 30, 2004

Women must wait another 150 years to consign men to the slow
lane
By Mark Henderson, Science Correspondent







ATHENS might have produced a memorable Olympics, but its place
in history will be nothing compared to the games of 2156. Scientists predict
that this is the year in which women will overtake men as the fastest
sprinters in the world.

The women's 100 metres champion in 150 years will breast the
tape in a time of just 8.079 seconds, fractionally quicker than the winning
men's mark of 8.098 seconds, British researchers have calculated.

A mathematical analysis of the winning times at Olympic finals
over the past 100 years has shown that women's performance is improving
significantly faster than that of men.

Should this trend continue - and the scientists see no
compelling reason why it should not - the progress graphs will cross during
the 66th Olympiad in 2156, making the fastest person in the world female for
the first time.



A 40 year old woman want to marry a boy that she loves. Unfortunately
the boy is only 10 years old and she want to marry an older man.
Right now she is 4 times as old as the boy. She waits 5 years. She
is now 45 and he is 15 so she is only 3 times older. In 15 years she
is 60 and he 30 so she is only twice as old.

How long before he is older?

(about as long as it will take for the women to run faster 100m)
  #9  
Old October 2nd 04, 05:51 AM
zxcv
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"freddy" wrote in message ...
September 30, 2004

Women must wait another 150 years to consign men to the slow
lane
By Mark Henderson, Science Correspondent







ATHENS might have produced a memorable Olympics, but its place
in history will be nothing compared to the games of 2156. Scientists predict
that this is the year in which women will overtake men as the fastest
sprinters in the world.

The women's 100 metres champion in 150 years will breast the
tape in a time of just 8.079 seconds, fractionally quicker than the winning
men's mark of 8.098 seconds, British researchers have calculated.

A mathematical analysis of the winning times at Olympic finals
over the past 100 years has shown that women's performance is improving
significantly faster than that of men.

Should this trend continue - and the scientists see no
compelling reason why it should not


It is 2004. Where is my flying car?
 




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